The voluntary exodus from the Wyoming Legislature has begun, like it does every election year shortly before candidates start filing to run.

Several prominent lawmakers have announced they aren’t coming back to the Capitol. After one of the most bitter and divisive budget sessions in the state’s history, who can blame them? Several more will no doubt dash to the exits, anxious to put the stench of the past several years of Republican Party in-fighting behind them.

Their reasons for leaving state politics are myriad, and we may never know their real motivation. Some were obviously frustrated by the rapid deterioration of legislative decorum and rise of lawmaker-on-lawmaker verbal attacks. Others may be weary of campaigning and the high cost of races, or want to devote more time to other pursuits.

But something is different this year. The departures could have a dramatic impact on which faction of the Republican Party will be in charge: the majority Wyoming Caucus with its classically conservative beliefs, or the far-right Freedom Caucus, which only needs a net gain of six seats to take control of the 62-member House.

The close GOP split in both chambers makes the handful of districts where Democrats are competitive outside of Albany and Teton counties — where the seven current lawmakers from the minority party live — more significant. Democrats have formed alliances with the Wyoming Caucus to dilute the Freedom Caucus’s influence on hot-button social issues.

The Senate does not have a Freedom Caucus, but senators who share its hard-line political views are almost equally divided with more mainstream Republicans. Only 15 Senate seats — those from even-numbered districts — are up for election this cycle.

Several lawmakers not seeking re-election are from the traditional wing of the Republican Party, known for its pro-business, small government and local control values, with less ideological rigidity than the Freedom Caucus. The latter faction is uncompromising in its anti-abortion and pro-gun stances, and embraces false claims of rampant election fraud and the “dangers” of life-saving vaccines.

This might seem to give Freedom Caucus candidates an advantage for those open seats in the Aug. 20 GOP primary because they won’t face an incumbent. But candidates who align with the Wyoming Caucus will also be on the ballot in most of these districts, where like-minded politicians have won previous races.

Some Wyoming Caucus members are leaving the House, but not state politics. House Speaker Albert Sommers (R-Pinedale) is considering a bid for the Senate seat being given up by Sen. Fred Baldwin (R-Kemmerer). If he runs and is successful, Sommers would join another former House speaker who is a traditional Republican, Sen. Eric Barlow (R-Gillette).

Sommers has endorsed Cat Urbigkit, a Boulder rancher and writer, for his HD 20 seat. She will face Mike Schmid, a La Barge oilman who aligns with the Freedom Caucus. He lost the 2022 primary to Sommers by 720 votes.

Another Wyoming Caucus member, Rep. Jared Olsen (R-Cheyenne), announced his candidacy for Senate District 8, which Sen. Affie Ellis (R-Cheyenne) is leaving. Ellis has been a featured speaker at the batty national Conservative Political Action Conference, but unlike radical Republicans in the Senate, she generally votes on major issues like the budget with the more moderate wing of the party.

Sen. Dave Kinskey (R-Sheridan) is also leaving. He was a traditionally conservative voice in the Senate but joined hard-liners in opposing the budget and pushing to eliminate gun-free zones. The budget bill was crafted before a narrow majority bucked Senate President Ogden Driskill (R-Devils Tower) and returned Kinskey to chair the Senate Appropriations Committee in a particularly obnoxious power play.

One Freedom Caucus strength is its ability to organize. I have no doubt it will have a candidate in the primary for every available legislative seat.

But the caucus also has a significant Wyoming political liability: about one-third of its members are not Wyoming natives. Rep. Jeanette Ward (R-Casper) brags she’s a “political refugee from fascist Illinois,” which openly makes her a carpetbagger. Many Wyoming voters are suspicious of new arrivals.

Laurie Bratten, a Colorado GOP operative before she moved here in 2019, is running in HD 51. The seat is held by Rep. Cyrus Western (R-Big Horn),  House majority whip. But Western, a Wyoming Caucus member, recently said he won’t seek re-election because he wants to focus on starting a family.

Before that announcement, Western criticized his potential rival Bratten as a WINO, or “Wyomingite in name only,” who wants to “bring D.C. politics to the state.”

The Freedom Caucus is targeting several Wyoming Caucus incumbents, setting up showdowns that will be key in determining House leadership.

Chief among them will be the battle between Rep. Bob Nicholas (R-Cheyenne), co-chair of the powerful Joint Appropriations Committee, and state GOP Executive Director Kathy Russell.

Ten-term Rep. Dan Zwonitzer (R-Cheyenne), who is routinely bashed by the Freedom Caucus, will be challenged by Ann Lucas, a member of the state GOP central committee.

Rep. Barry Crago (R-Buffalo) will face Mark Jones, a Wyoming lobbyist for Gun Owners of America who moved here from North Carolina.

At least two far-right incumbents could be in jeopardy of losing their seats. Freshman Rep. Tony Locke (R-Casper) isn’t officially a Freedom Caucus member, but aligns with most of its positions. He is being challenged by school administrator Chris Dresang, a moderate Republican.

In 2022, Freedom Caucus member, and transplant from Utah, Rep. Sarah Penn (R-Lander) defeated former Democratic Rep. Andi LeBeau, the first woman member of the Northern Arapaho tribe to be elected to the House. If Penn decides to run again, she will likely square off in the general election for HD 33, which is majority Indigenous, against Ivan Posey, a Democratic Shoshone educator.

Whichever faction of the Wyoming GOP wins the most House seats will determine the next speaker. The contest will probably be between Speaker Pro Tem Clark Stith (R-Rock Springs) and Rep. Chip Neiman (R-Hulett), who was the surprise victor as House majority floor leader last year even though the Freedom Caucus did not hold a majority.

All signs point to an extremely close election to determine the Legislature’s political agenda. People who want to focus on actually governing — not the circus sideshow the Freedom Caucus leads by trying to pass anti-vaccine bills, squash LGBTQ rights, ban books, and rewrite the nation’s racial history — need to run for the Legislature. The Wyoming Caucus must recruit them.

To keep extremists from winning control, of course, people must vote. Last year, the far-right won its long battle to ban “crossover” voting, to keep Democrats from having a say in picking Republican nominees. Registered voters who were able to switch their party affiliation on primary day must now decide which one they will vote in by May 15. That’s the day before the candidate filing period begins, so people won’t even know who’s running unless they’ve already announced!

The state GOP pushed the change because they knew if Democrats crossed over, they would oppose Freedom Caucus candidates. For this cynical political calculation to fail, Democratic voters who don’t have contested legislative primaries or other races they care about still have a chance to influence which GOP faction makes it to the most general election ballots.

It may not be enough to prevent the Freedom Caucus from taking control, but it’s the only door the far-right has left open that might keep it from happening.

Veteran Wyoming journalist Kerry Drake has covered Wyoming for more than four decades, previously as a reporter and editor for the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle and Casper Star-Tribune. He lives in Cheyenne and can be reached at kerry.drake33@yahoo.com.

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